RESEARCH: Can hitters be 'hot'?

Baseball HQ.com readers are familiar with the guidance to be careful of coming to conclusions about a player's potential statistical output based on small sample sizes. We consistently caution owners not to make significant moves early in the season because we know that overperformers and underperformers tend to return to their documented baseline skill levels.

We do, however, advise owners to make adjustments to their teams based on changes in role, injuries, and playing time. Despite this counsel, how many of us look at a player's recent performance to decide whom to bid on at FAAB time?

Look at the free agent pickups in your league each week. In weekly leagues, many pickups are probably driven by changes in role, but there are...

Almost!

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