RESEARCH: Changepoint Analysis Part 1: Batting Skill

BaseballHQ.com offers many methods for breaking down performance into its component skills and using these skills as predictors of future success. Sometimes, players perform as expected based on their skills, and other times, players produce surprise performances with unexpected hot or cold streaks. When a player with a previously established baseline does something out of the ordinary, it may be difficult to determine if the step forward or step back represents a real change in that player’s ability, or if it is within the range that should be expected due to statistical noise in performance variability.

The hypothesis of this research project is that a retrospective data analysis technique called changepoint analysis can be an...

Almost!

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