RESEARCH: Draft Simulations — Beating the ADP

The previous installments of this column first compared different valuation methods to one another and then examined these methods in the context of average draft position (ADP). The initial article on this topic found that, when direct comparisons were made, the z-score method for valuing players performed better than the percentage value method (PVM) and the standings gain points (SGP) method. Last month, this column explored these methods further, but also examined the strengths and weaknesses of using replacement level adjustments. Somewhat unexpectedly, the previous analysis found that using ADP data to select players produced stronger teams, on average, than any of the common valuation methods. Therefore, the current article seeks...

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