RESEARCH: Expected Wins
Feb 5 2015
A few years ago, this writer was looking at projections for the Reds' pitching staff. While the exact numbers are part of history, they looked somewhat like this:
Arroyo, with the highest projected ERA and fewest IP, was projected for the most wins. And Volquez, with the lowest ERA and most IP projected, was projected for the fewest. Now, this made sense given the win totals for each player over the prior three years, but it didn't make intuitive sense. Surely, lower ERA and more innings should lead to more wins, all things being equal. (And all things were equal—these pitchers had the same offense and defense behind them, and the same bullpen). Yet, there we were.
We've tackled the subject before. Last year, Patrick Davitt took a look...
Almost!
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