RESEARCH: First half ERA/xERA variances
Jun 13 2012
We take certain fanalytic pitching concepts as rote: strikeouts good, walks bad, and ERA/xERA variances will correct. All three of these are usually true. But how much can you rely on ERA/xERA variance in making roster decisions? And how quickly can we expect the variances to reverse?
Comparing performance from the first half of the season to the second half has some advantages. It is after all, a natural break point where many owners stop and take stock. And it balances out the season so that you theoretically have equal sample sizes. And half a season should be enough of a sample that we can begin to do some analysis of the results.
We looked at the last five seasons (2007-2011), comparing the first-half performance of pitchers...
Almost!
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