RESEARCH: How much does previous total production matter?
Apr 25 2019
Previous production. I know of some smart experts who will never draft a player early who has never previously put up numbers comparable their projection. For example, in NFBC drafts this year, Adalberto Mondesi and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were both Top 50 picks. Mondesi had a couple of productive months, while Guerrero has not yet faced major league pitching. Is this inexperience worth dropping them down a draft board when their projections say otherwise?
It seems like projections should take this inexperience into account. But still, others would like to see the player perform before buying in. Are these owners being paranoid, or is there something to their beliefs? It's time to find out.
First, there must be some ground rules for...
Almost!
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