RESEARCH: Indicators, starting points, and bi-linear correlations
Dec 15 2016
Leading indicators are valuable for their relative stability in the face of luck and context-dependent variation in outcomes. Prolonged changes in the indicators suggests a change in performance and value will follow, because of the correlation between indicators and performance. However, it stands to reason that an identical relative change in performance could affect players differently depending on where they start out. For example, will an 5% increase contact rate cause a similar decrease in strikeout rate for a hitter starting at 82% as one starting at 62%? Here, we test if any correlations between statistics can be better described by a bi-linear, as opposed to linear, correlation. If successful, this would allow us to identify...
Almost!
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