RESEARCH: Predictive value of hitting streaks, part 2
Dec 16 2011
What players should we target for free agent pickups or for in-season trades? If we had a reliable indicator that a player’s performance was improving, we would have an advantage over our competition. In an earlier column, we provided evidence that players who hit safely in 10 consecutive games in 2011 did not have higher batting averages than their overall season BA in their next 10 games. This suggests that a 10-game hitting streak is not a reliable short-term predictor of improved BA. As such, chasing these players through free agency or trades is not profitable if seeking a short-term BA performance improvement for your team.
This week we ask a follow-up question focused on a wider time horizon: can a hitting streak forecast...
Almost!
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