RESEARCH: Sustainability of dollar value
Nov 30 2012
Introduction
One of the arguments that arose in our recent series on “The Prospect Myth” was that trading prospects for “established players” was no sure thing, because there are likewise no guarantees projecting value from past record—even at the MLB level.
This seemed like a legitimate critique, so we decided to examine just how “projectable” a player’s value is based on his past performance.
Method
To assess the sustainability of player value over time, we identified every player whose first big-league season was in 2003-10 and who had BaseballHQ.com dollar valuations (R$) for first and subsequent seasons. Our survey identified 1,180 players who met the criteria—or about 130 per year.
We then ran correlations to see how...
Almost!
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