RESEARCH: Using September + April to predict rest of season
May 12 2016
Early in the fantasy season is a difficult time to give advice on specific players. Are deviations from expectations due to unanticipated changes in skills, or are they small sample size noise? Here, we examine whether “increasing” the early season sample size, by examining leading metrics over the past two calendar months, April and the preceding September, can help better identify the changes in leading indicators that are more likely to be predictive as opposed to noise.
Approach and Methodology
This analysis was performed using monthly splits from FanGraphs from 2005-2015. For each player, we first identified each set of consecutive seasons in which a player had at least 30 PA in one month. We then split this pair of seasons into...
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