RESEARCH: When do Top 100 players get promoted?

Last season in my 15-team Tout Wars league, I had the second pick in the reserve round. Zack Steinhorn, the defending champ, took Yoán Moncada as the first pick and stated he was the only player he considered. While Moncada was the near consensus top prospect in the game, I had him valued below Cody Bellinger. In my mind, I created a narrative where the non-contending White Sox would keep Moncada down while the Dodgers would bring up anyone who would help them win their division.

In this instance, my results were right, but the process might not have been. Ever since making that decision, I decided to create the odds for a highly touted prospect making it to the majors in any given season knowing a few variables like top 100 rank, the...

Almost!

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