Finding this year's Justin Steele
Mar 6 2024
Justin Steele (LHP, CHC) was barely being drafted inside the Top 300 this time last season. Over 170 innings of a 3.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 176 strikeouts later, he's nearly a Top-100 pick coming off one of the more profitable breakouts of 2023.
The purpose of this column is to find this year's version of Steele, looking back on Steele's pre-breakout indicators to see which pitchers in the pool check similar boxes. We're looking for some combination of the following:
- A 150+ ADP. We can't be picking low-hanging fruit here. Steele was nearly free in drafts with a 293 ADP entering 2023.
- Volume. Steele threw a career-high (at the time) 119 IP in 2022, so we'll set a similar filter here on starters who threw 100+ innings in 2023.
- A good...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Speculator
With most pitchers 3-4 starts in, we dive into the sub-indicators to see who's rising and falling.
Apr 15 2026 3:06am
Apr 15 2026 3:06am
Using our Quality of Batted Ball (QBaB) metric to make some speculative hitter snap judgments.
Apr 8 2026 3:06am
Apr 8 2026 3:06am
Baseball is back, and it's time to overreact... because what else are we supposed to do?
Apr 1 2026 3:08am
Apr 1 2026 3:08am
Our Opening Day Eve tradition speculating on the top category producers who went late in drafts.
Mar 25 2026 3:07am
Mar 25 2026 3:07am
If history is any guide, this year's end-of-season Top 15 will come from all stages of the draft.
Mar 18 2026 3:08am
Mar 18 2026 3:08am
