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SPECULATOR: Fighting recency bias—pitchers

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Ryan Bloomfield

Mar 14 2018 12:04am

SPECULATOR: Fighting recency bias—pitchers

Ryan Bloomfield

Mar 14 2018

Last week in this space, we looked at several "recency bias" hitters whose draft costs may be overly impacted by last year's stats. History says they have at least a 60/40 chance to regress toward the mean the following year—those odds grow even further for pitchers.

Since 2015, 71 starting pitchers have seen their ADP rise by 50+ picks in consecutive seasons (to reduce injury bias, we're limiting this to pitchers with 80+ IP in both seasons).

51 of those pitchers (72%) saw a decrease in 5x5 earnings per inning the following season.
Just 19 of them (27%) turned a profit at their ADP in year two.

And on the flip side, 63 starters have seen their ADP fall 50+ picks in consecutive seasons.

40 of those pitchers (63%) saw an increase in...

Almost!

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