(*) SPECULATOR: Stretch run playing time losers

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Ray Murphy

Aug 14 2013 5:04am

(*) SPECULATOR: Stretch run playing time losers

Ray Murphy

Aug 14 2013

(This column appears in the August 14 edition of Sports Weekly.)

The length of the MLB season cautions fantasy owners not to get too attached to their players for long stretches. The players who played well in the first half to get you into contention may not be the best options to help you pull away in August and September. As rosters expand in September and a bunch of non-contending MLB teams start their 2014 prep early, playing time starts fracturing among more players.

As a result, accumulating at-bats and innings on your fantasy roster can get more difficult in the season’s final weeks. Properly managing these issues can help decide leagues—especially in head-to-head formats that use the season’s final week or two to decide championships.

What players might be at risk of losing playing time in the final weeks? Here are some candidates:

A suddenly-crowded OF in Arizona is already starting to squeeze out Jason Kubel. In theory, his left-handed bat should form the favorable side of a platoon with Cody Ross, Gerardo Parra, or Adam Eaton. Working against Kubel is the fact that, even though the Diamondbacks are not totally out of playoff contention, Kubel is the only one of that group who is not under team control for 2014. Martín Prado’s positional flexibility also gives the Diamondbacks another OF alternative, and Kubel has by far the worst defensive skills of the group. Once the Diamondbacks fully turn toward planning for 2014, Kubel’s playing time outlook could get bleak.

The glut of expensive contracts accumulated by the Dodgers over the past year-plus hasn’t created much of a playing-time crunch yet, but that may be about to change. With Yasiel Puig entrenched in one OF spot, and Matt Kemp returning in September, that will leave only one spot for either Carl Crawford or Andre Ethier. Both are highly paid, but those considerations won’t count for much as the Dodgers push for a playoff spot. Whoever isn’t producing at the right time will find a seat on the bench.

Carlos Ruiz has seen his 2013 season interrupted by suspension and by injury, and in between those events his productivity has suffered greatly. Given his expiring contract, the Phillies may well choose to use September as a preview of what life after Ruiz might look like, and spend a few weeks looking at Eric Kratz and perhaps prospect Sebastian Valle behind the plate.

Evan Gattis has carved out a nice season as the Braves “10^th man”, working as a fill-in around the outfield and behind the plate. But as the Braves get healthy and playoff-prepped, Gattis may get restored to a more traditional backup catcher role, albeit one who gets frequent pinch-hit opportunities and the occasional start vs. left-handed pitching. But if the Uptons, Jayson Heyward, Brian McCann and Freddie Freeman are all healthy, Gattis will be the odd bat out.

In Boston, Stephen Drew’s recent recent stretch of good health and improved production allowed the Red Sox to use José Iglesias as a deadline trade chip, leaving Drew entrenched as the Sox shortstop. But should he falter down the stretch or get dinged up again, Boston’s backup plan is likely top prospect Xander Bogaerts. It would be unusual to see a contending team hand the SS position to a rookie this late in the year, but if Drew opens the door, Bogaerts could charge through it. At minimum, if the Red Sox manage to maintain a playoff position, Bogaerts could be used to give Drew some September rest.

Miguel Cabrera’s recent injury problems could pose a threat to Victor Martínez’s playing time in the late stages of the season. With a comfortable division lead, the Tigers should soon be able to think in terms of getting themselves healthy for October. While they may not be so comfortable that they can get away with shutting Cabrera down for a few weeks to let his abdominal injury heal, they might compromise by trying to give him an extended break from playing the field. Mixing in a few days off with a stretch of DH work could get him closer to full strength. In that scenario, Martinez could spend stretches of time on the bench.

The Angels are already into 2014 evaluation mode. One of their priorities is to take a long look at new acquisition Grant Green at 2B, an experiment currently made easy by Howie Kendrick’s DL stint. When he returns, Kendrick could find himself still yielding ABs to Green, as the Angels try to determine whether Green can handle 2B full time. Kendrick could slide to the OF in that scenario, but the Angels will also be evaluating the likes of J.B. Shuck and Colin Cowgill as bench options for next year. Kendrick will certainly find some playing time down the stretch, but it might be noticeably less than the everyday work that his owners expected.

Since February, the phrase “when the Yankees get healthy” has been uttered so many times it has lost all meaning. Still, as more regulars return to the New York lineup, a playing time squeeze could yet result. Travis Hafner should return in August and form a DH platoon with Vernon Wells. With Curtis Granderson back in the OF, that could trigger the beginnings of a squeeze on current OFs Brett Gardner, Ichiro Suzuki, and Alfonso Soriano. Including Wells, all of these OF except Granderson are under contract for next year, although that doesn’t necessarily mean all will return. Owners of any of these OF should expect to see playing time diluted down the stretch. Also, keep in mind that the situation will only become worse if Derek Jeter or Alex Rodriguez is relegated to DH-only work.

A similar log jam exists in Minnesota, and a number of veterans there may get squeezed out in September. Within the Twins’ current corner OF/DH/1B rotation, Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit are under contract for 2014, while Justin Morneau is not. The Twins should have a good handle on the capabilities of these three. However, in planning for next year, they could use more information about the readiness of Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee, and Aaron Hicks. If those three require a long September audition for evaluation purposes, that veteran trio of Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit could spend the season’s final weeks in part-time roles.

Raul Ibanez had a surprising power surge in Seattle earlier this summer, but that power has waned lately. With the Mariners buried in the AL West, and the team’s OF bloated by the return of Michael Morse and the position change of Dustin Ackley, it only makes sense that Ibanez should sit in favor of those who are part of the future in Seattle.

Rajai Davis has been a highly productive fantasy asset out of a reserve role in Toronto (34 SB in just 203 AB), but even part-time work might be hard to come by as the season winds down. Given the Jays have younger and cheaper alternatives like Anthony Gose and Emilio Bonifácio to fill out their bench in 2014, Toronto could make an early decision that Davis is not part of their plans going forward.

What about the pitchers? In this age of closely-monitored workloads, almost any young pitcher with a full season’s worth of innings on their arm is a candidate for an early offseason. A simple scan of the league leaders in innings pitched for anyone age 25 or younger produces a list of candidates to miss some September rotation turns:

San Francisco’s Madison Bumgarner, San Diego’s Andrew Cashner, Colorado’s Jhoulys Chacín, Arizona’s Patrick Corbin, Miami’s Jose Fernandez, the Mets’ Matt Harvey, St. Louis’ Shelby Miller, the Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija, the White Sox’s Chris Sale, Washington’s Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, and Atlanta’s Julio Teheran.

The Speculator is not designed to make definitive assertions about the future; rather, it is designed solely to open readers' eyes to possibilities they may not have previously entertained, and in doing so, provide a different perspective on the future. Many of the possibilities will be of the "out on a limb" variety. All are founded on SOME element of fact. But none should be considered any more than 20% percentage plays.