(*) SPECULATOR: Takeaways from the Last 31 Day leaders

Speculator

Ray Murphy

Jun 14 2014 11:05pm

(*) SPECULATOR: Takeaways from the Last 31 Day leaders

Ray Murphy

Jun 14 2014

Extending last week's exercise, this week we explore another under-utilized area of BaseballHQ.com's statistical library: the Last 31 Days stat files found in the Year-to-Date Stats & Projections files.

This is a particularly good time in the season to explore this data set. These L31 stat files, taken on June 13, track performance from mid-May until today. Conveniently, mid-May is the time frame in which we traditionally say that stats and standings really begin to become legitimate. So, in undertaking a look at what has happened since mid-May, we get a nice snapshot of who has altered their fortunes since we started trusting what we were seeing in 2014 results.

We will present several different versions of these leader boards, and pull out some names worthy of further analysis. First, let's look at power sources. Here is a list of all MLB hitters with more than 5 HR in the past 31 days:

6+ HR                 Tm    HR
=================    ===    ==
Encarnacion,Edwin    TOR    14
Cruz,Nelson          BAL    11
Springer,George      HOU    10
Moss,Brandon         OAK    10
Donaldson,Josh       OAK     9
Martinez,Victor      DET     8
Carter,Chris         HOU     8
Desmond,Ian          WAS     8
Davis,Chris          BAL     8
Ortiz,David          BOS     8
Chisenhall,Lonnie    CLE     7
Cabrera,Miguel       DET     7
Frazier,Todd         CIN     7
McCutchen,Andrew     PIT     6
Davis,Khristopher    MIL     6
Pence,Hunter          SF     6
Gordon,Alex           KC     6
Goldschmidt,Paul     ARI     6
Rizzo,Anthony        CHC     6
Stanton,Giancarlo    MIA     6
Sandoval,Pablo        SF     6
Jones,Adam           BAL     6
Tulowitzki,Troy      COL     6
Dunn,Adam            CHW     6
Mesoraco,Devin       CIN     6
Byrd,Marlon          PHI     6

A pair of pre-season first round picks appear here, in Andrew McCutchen and Adam Jones, both of whom scared their owners with slow starts in terms of HR output: Jones hit 1 HR in April but has provided 9 more since. McCutchen actually hit 4 in April, then took a goose egg in May and has now socked six in the first two weeks of June. Clusters of good and bad performance aside, both appear on track to return representative value. In McCutchen's case, even a $40 season remains attainable.

Back in our mid-April snap judgments column, we suggested that Khris Davis would be one of the first slow starters that we would consider giving up on, because his 2013 breakout was also rooted in a small sample. Davis responded immediately with a 3-HR week in late April, and hasn't looked back. His .258/.307/.476 full-year slash line isn't terribly impressive, but that rough stretch from early April is still dampening his numbers. He may not be quite as good as his Last 31 slash line (.323/.396/.613), but he has now shown he can repeat the 2013 power surge, and the combined 2013-14 sample size is getting large enough to eliminate "stone cold fluke" from the range of possible outcomes here. Davis looks increasingly legitimate as a power source.

Moving on to speed sources, here is the list of runners with 5+ SB in the past 31 days:

5+ SB              Tm    SB
==============    ===    ==
Hamilton,Billy    CIN    12
Gordon,Dee         LA    12
Altuve,Jose       HOU    11
Reyes,Jose        TOR     9
Ellsbury,Jacoby   NYY     8
Gardner,Brett     NYY     6
Davis,Rajai       DET     6
Revere,Ben        PHI     6
Escobar,Alcides    KC     6
Jones,James       SEA     6
Segura,Jean       MIL     6
Ramirez,Hanley     LA     5
Rollins,Jimmy     PHI     5
Gomez,Carlos      MIL     5
Cabrera,Everth     SD     5
Stubbs,Drew       COL     5
Yelich,Christian  MIA     5
Ramirez,Alexei    CHW     5
Rios,Alex         TEX     5
Span,Denard       WAS     5
Wong,Kolten       STL     5
De Aza,Alejandro  CHW     5
Blanco,Gregor      SF     5

Mostly familiar SB threats here, but a couple are worthy of further comment:

Drew Stubbs has some rather large holes in his game, but he offers some strengths as well: in particular, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that he totaled exactly 100 SB from 2010-12. Since then, reaching first base consistently has been his undoing, but Colorado's thin air has proven an antidote for that problem thus far in 2014. With the injuries to Cuddyer and Gonzalez, there is ample opportunity for Stubbs to play, and run, over the next month or so. Indeed, another 5-10 SB by the All-Star Break would be very attainable.

Kolten Wong has put together two dissonant small-sample stretches on either side of his brief demotion: 71 AB of .225/.276/.268 with 3 SB got him sent to Triple-A in late April. Since his recall, he's posted 65 AB of .277/.347/.385, with 5 SB. We can't just erase the April stretch from his record, but the player we have seen since his recall is much more in line with the one we have been expecting all along. Going forward, five more SB per month seems like a reasonable baseline expectation.

Turning our attention to batting average, here is every MLB hitter with a 325+ BA over the past 31 days (minimum 50 AB):

Name                  Tm    AB    BA
=========            ===   ===   ====
Chisenhall,Lonnie    CLE    94    436
Beltre,Adrian        TEX   106    396
Valbuena,Luis        CHC    77    390
Cano,Robinson        SEA    94    383
Cabrera,Miguel       DET   102    373
Gillaspie,Conor      CHW    83    373
Lucroy,Jonathan      MIL   113    372
Pollock IV,A.J.      ARI    65    369
Rios,Alex            TEX   105    362
Turner,Justin         LA    72    361
Santana,Daniel       MIN    67    358
Pence,Hunter          SF   110    355
Blanco,Gregor         SF    60    350
Lind,Adam            TOR    80    350
Brantley,Michael     CLE   112    348
Altuve,Jose          HOU   121    347
Cruz,Nelson          BAL   104    346
Fowler,Dexter        HOU   104    346
Stubbs,Drew          COL    61    344
Sandoval,Pablo        SF   105    343
Gomez,Carlos         MIL    91    341
Puig,Yasiel           LA   100    340
Jay,Jon              STL    59    339
Jones,Adam           BAL   121    339
Holt,Brock           BOS   108    333
Carpenter,Matt       STL   111    333
Murphy,David         CLE   100    330
Jones,Garrett        MIA    91    330
Cain,Lorenzo          KC    85    329
Trout,Mike           LAA    85    329
Saunders,Michael     SEA    64    328
Odor,Rougned         TEX    61    328
Martinez,Victor      DET   107    327

A few weeks ago, we called Pablo Sandoval a sell-low candidate. Hopefully, you ignored that advice, as Sandoval seemed to pick that exact moment to get his bat going in full force, landing him on both the .325+ BA list and the 6+ HR list here. Like Jones and McCutchen above, Sandoval's Jekyll/Hyde performance in the season's first 2.5 months is just a reminder why the non-speculative, 80% play is to "practice excruciating patience." Where does Sandoval go from here? The 6 HR in a month is the more fluky achievement, but his track record tells us that he can plausibly sustain a .325+ BA for the balance of the season.

We have written optimistically about Dexter Fowler already this year. His April performance did not justify our optimism, but he has picked up the pace considerably. With the Avg bounce, his SBs have understandably ticked up in tandem. Still-dormant is his power output, stifled primarily by an unusually high (for him) GB%. If Fowler can get the ball in the air a touch more, he can yet be a five-category contributor over the balance of the season.

Finally, here is a list of every MLB hitter with a 950+ OPS over the past 31 days (minimum 50 AB):

950+ OPS              Tm     OPS
=================    ===    ====
Chisenhall,Lonnie    CLE    1226
Cruz,Nelson          BAL    1158
Cabrera,Miguel       DET    1114
Willingham,Josh      MIN    1098
Springer,George      HOU    1096
Encarnacion,Edwin    TOR    1075
Valbuena,Luis        CHC    1070
Pollock IV,A.J.      ARI    1060
Dickerson,Corey      COL    1038
Moss,Brandon         OAK    1034
McCutchen,Andrew     PIT    1033
Beltre,Adrian        TEX    1029
Trout,Mike           LAA    1027
Puig,Yasiel           LA    1026
Gattis,Evan          ATL    1024
Lucroy,Jonathan      MIL    1013
Davis,Khristopher    MIL    1009
Pence,Hunter          SF    1009
Martinez,Victor      DET    1003
Gordon,Alex           KC     993
Goldschmidt,Paul     ARI     987
Cano,Robinson        SEA     959
Rizzo,Anthony        CHC     954
Arcia,Oswaldo        MIN     953

Josh Willingham could reasonably have been left for dead, baseball-wise, during his May DL stint. After a banner 2012 in Minnesota, he was injured and ineffective through 2013, and exhibited both of those states again early in 2014. But, since coming off the DL on May 26, Willingham has been channeling 2012 again. Age 35 isn't too old for Willingham to continue to turn back the clock for the balance of this season, assuming his health holds up.

Brandon Moss is a recurring resident on these lists, but to some it may appear that he doesn't belong. But with 67 HR in 2.5 years and a 900+ OPS over that span, Moss has earned himself a plot in this neighborhood. And depending on your format, his platoon tendencies may be a curse or a blessing: if you can't manipulate your lineup daily, his periodic absences vs. LHP might be seen as a frustration. If your league does allow daily moves, or if you are playing daily games, his platoon split actually serves to concentrate his value on days when he is in his familiar mid-lineup position vs. an RHP. He's never a bad option on those days, and is a consistent plus option in those daily formats.

Next week: same exercise for pitchers.

The Speculator is not designed to make definitive assertions about the future; rather, it is designed solely to open readers' eyes to possibilities they may not have previously entertained, and in doing so, provide a different perspective on the future. Many of the possibilities will be of the "out on a limb" variety. All are founded on SOME element of fact. But none should be considered any more than 20% percentage plays.