BATTERS: Prepare to Fail

Sixty-four percent of the owners reading this article are going to botch their first round picks next year. It might sound harsh, but it's in black and white right there in your copy of the 2013 Baseball Forecaster. Since 2004, only thirty-six percent of players drafted in the first round (defined here as the first 15 picks) have managed to return first round value. There are lots of factors, but the main reason can be boiled down to this: Players drafted in the first round have very little room for profitability. Their draft position/price makes it critical that they reproduce or even outperform the terrific numbers they produced the previous season, which is a pretty high bar for success.

Much ink will be spilled this offseason...

Almost!

You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!

Already a subscriber? Sign in here

More From Batters

We are back for Year 2 of Swings and Takes, with potentially exciting adjustments from former #1 overall picks.
FREE
Apr 1 2025 3:10am
Luken Baker's big spring gains in contact and uptick in production vs. RHers make him an interesting power stash among bench bats.
Mar 31 2025 3:30am
Trevor Larnach's late 2024 gains and big spring make him a sneaky profit play in 2025 drafts.
Mar 22 2025 3:10am
Luis Matos will not start the season as a regular in the Giants lineup, but his really strong spring gives hope he could take a big step forward in 2025.
Mar 22 2025 3:09am
Randal Grichuk's concurrent gains in contact and batted ball quality make him a sneaky speculation that you can get for a modest investment in many leagues.
Mar 17 2025 3:08am

Tools