(*) FACTS/FLUKES: O. Cruz, Nimmo, Helsley, India, Taillon
Feb 9 2023
Is Cruz a likely candidate for a $20 season?... After earning $13 in rotisserie value in 2022 for a rookie debut that saw him hit .233 with 17 HR, 54 RBI, and 10 SB over 361 PA, Oneil Cruz (SS, PIT) would seem to be a lock to surpass the $20 mark in his first full season. Is there any reason to think he might fall short?
Year PA BA xBA bb% ct% HctX GB/LD/FB PX/xPX HR/F Spd/SBA HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== ======== ======= ==== ======= ===== 2019# 136 .269 N/A 11 70 N/A N/A 114/N/A N/A 151/N/A 1/ 3 2020 -----------------Spent at alternate training site---------------------- 2021^ 301 .267 N/A 7 72 N/A N/A 126/N/A N/A 142/N/A 12/14 21MLB 9 .333 .252 0 56 182 60/20/20 221/178 100% 130/ 0% 1/ 0 2022+ 247 .185 N/A 9 70 N/A N/A 82/N/A N/A 121/N/A 5/ 7 22MLB 361 .233 .235 8 62 104 49/17/34 158/119 24% 136/20% 17/10 #Double-A MLEs ^Double-A/Triple-A MLEs +Triple-A MLEs
One nagging flaw in his skills might hold him back:
- Amid a lot of positives in his skill set, the one negative that stands out is his subpar MLB contact rate, which dropped quite a bit from the already-shaky levels he established in the minors. However, as his BA and xBA from 2022 show, that didn't stop him from hitting close enough to league average for that not to be a huge problem. The bigger issue is in his platoon splits, where he posted a 71% contact rate against RHP, but only a 42% rate against lefties, meaning he struck out in more than half of his at-bats against them. That led to a .158 BA and .532 OPS against left-handers, and creates risk that if he's not able to show improvement against them in 2023, he could wind up in a platoon role that would take a bite out of his PA total and R$ for the year.
- His power skills, on the other hand, were very promising, and included some elite Statcast metrics: his 91.9 mph exit velocity ranked in the 91st percentile, and his 15.5% Barrel% ranked in the 96th percentile. He hit the hardest ball in the majors in 2022, clocked at 122.4 mph. And while his xPX didn't support his PX output, his HR total and HR/F were fully backed by xHR (17) and xHR/F (24%). And both of those skills improved in the second half: he had 16 xHR over 301 PA with a 30% xHR/F, suggesting that he could make a run at 30+ HR in 2023... as long as his strikeout issues against lefties don't eat into his playing time.
- He also added double-digit steals to his rookie package, and that was with an SBA% and SB% (71%) that were merely okay. His Spd score was elite, and his Statcast sprint speed ranked in the 98th percentile, so there's reason to think the Pirates could give him a greener light on the basepaths in 2023, and his 76.7% success rate in Double-A and Triple-A suggests he might be able to get a little more efficient as well. 20 SB seems like an achievable target, again, depending on whether he's able to maintain a full-time role.
It's easy to see why the 24-year-old Cruz was considered one of the best prospects in baseball, with power and speed that could make him a fantasy mainstay in relatively short order. But we've also seen how contact issues can hinder the development of even the most elite prospects, and his problems against lefties need to be factored into any assessment of his 2023 value. The $20 mark is definitely within his reach, but there's enough risk here that you shouldn't treat that as a given.
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Nimmo remains a health risk... New career bests in games played (151) and PA (673) helped lead Brandon Nimmo (CF, NYM) to a career-high $18 in rotisserie value in 2022, along with new highs in runs scored (102) and RBI (64). Was the increased value only about staying healthy, or did he show any skill growth as well?
Year PA BA xBA HR xHR bb% ct% HctX GB/LD/FB PX/xPX HR/F xHR/F ==== === ==== ==== == === === === ==== ======== ======= ==== ===== 2018 535 .263 .254 17 14 15 68 93 45/22/33 148/114 18% 14% 2019 254 .221 .228 8 6 18 64 79 39/23/38 119/103 16% 12% 2020 225 .280 .263 8 7 15 77 67 47/20/32 107/ 70 17% 15% 2021 386 .292 .252 8 6 14 76 105 47/22/30 87/ 72 11% 8% 2022 673 .274 .263 16 18 11 80 105 51/18/32 97/ 93 11% 12%
It was mostly about staying healthy, though there was one skill development worth noting:
- Prior to 2022, Nimmo had only managed to surpass 100 games played and 500 PA once in his career, in 2018. Setting aside his small-sample 80 PA rookie debut in 2017, he has averaged 47 IL days over the last six seasons. He owned an F Health grade in the Baseball Forecaster in 2020, 2021, and 2022 editions, and his fully-healthy season only moved the needle to a D grade in the 2023 Forecaster. It was great to see him stay healthy in 2022, and he did manage to avoid the IL during the shortened 2020 season, but banking on him doing it again in 2023 seems unwise.
- Starting in 2020, Nimmo made a major shift in his contact rate, going from well below average to well above, and in 2022, he posted a new career high rate. The increased contact has given him a more stable BA floor over the last three seasons, but xBA questions whether his .280 BA over those three seasons is sustainable. Also worth noting for fantasy mangers in OBP leagues is that his 2022 walk rate was his lowest since his small-sample debut in 2017; likewise, his Swing% was his highest since 2017. That reduction in walks led to his lowest OBP since 2017—at .367, his OBP was still very strong, but a step down from .400 marks he owned in 2018, 2020, and 2021.
- If those fluctuations represented a change in approach, his power skill seemed to benefit, as his xPX rebounded from career lows in 2020-21, and xHR total exceeded his actual HR output, all despite the highest ground ball rate of his career. If we assume 500 PA as a more realistic goal for 2023, his xHR pace from 2022 suggests he could be good for 12-13 HR.
Nimmo will turn 30 in late March, which adds to the feeling that the risk of injury needs to remain a factor in his fantasy valuation. Toss in some potential xBA downside, which could push his OBP closer to .350, and there are several reasons to think that his rotisserie value will take a step back in 2023. On the plus side, his value floor has been quite solid, as he's reached double digits in four of the last five seasons, making him a good investment at the right price.
Is Helsley really an elite closer?... One of the biggest breakouts of 2022 belonged to Ryan Helsley (RHP, STL), who went from a 4.56 ERA and $-2 rotisserie value in 2021 to a 1.25 ERA, 19 saves, and $29 in R$ last year. How much of the breakout was supported by skill, and what can we expect from him in 2023?
Year IP ERA xERA BB% K% K-BB% xBB% SwK GB/LD/FB H%/S% HR/F xHR/F ==== == ==== ==== === === ===== ==== ===== ======== ===== ==== ===== 2019 37 2.95 5.09 8% 21% 13% 6% 10.7% 34/21/46 29/83 10% 10% 2020 12 5.25 6.20 15% 19% 4% 10% 14.4% 33/15/52 17/69 18% 14% 2021 47 4.56 4.69 13% 23% 10% 10% 11.8% 42/26/32 29/68 10% 15% 2022 65 1.25 2.77 8% 39% 31% 6% 19.2% 35/14/52 20/93 9% 10%
His skills broke out almost as much as his surface stats did:
- After three seasons of posting strikeout rates that barely even flirted with league average, Helsley's K% and SwK soared to rare heights in 2022. With his pitch usage largely staying the same, the biggest change was that his four-seam fastball came in roughly 2 mph faster, but that seemed to be enough to both turn that pitch into a stronger weapon (going from a 7.8% SwK in 2021 to 15.9% in 2022) and bring out the best in his slider (29.6% SwK).
- The other shift worth noting is that after seemingly experimenting with trying to become more of a ground ball pitcher in the first half of 2021, which raised his GB% to 47% but also lowered his SwK to 10.4%, he went back to his fly-ball-heavy ways in a small second half sample of 14 IP, and paired a 41% fly ball rate with a 16.2% SwK and 30% K%. So in retrospect, his 2022 breakout looks like a continuation of that second half of 2021.
- Finally, another piece of his triumphant 2022 season was restoring his control to levels he had established during his rookie season in 2019. The reduction in walks was backed by his xBB%, which even suggests further upside might be possible, and in the second half, he improved to a 7% BB%, 4% xBB, and posted a career-best 69% first-pitch strike rate. Here, the key improvement seemed to come from his slider, which went from a 16% BB% and 38% Ball% in 2021 to an 8% BB and 31% Ball% in 2022, which is likely what also helped it become such a formidable strikeout pitch.
- Helsley's ERA did benefit from a very low hit rate and extremely high strand rate, so xERA suggests his ERA should have been about a run-and-a-half higher. Likewise, the low hit rate helped his 0.74 WHIP, while his xWHIP was 0.98. But even a 2.77 ERA and 0.98 WHIP would be excellent, and if he's able to tap into the control upside suggested by xBB%, his 2023 targets might even move closer to a 2.50 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.
At 28, Helsley seems to have figured himself out as a pitcher, and his impressive skill breakout quickly led to higher-leverage work, until he was St. Louis's primary closer by September, a role he will resume in 2023. Saves are often a fickle asset, but with elite skills and a team that appears likely to compete for the postseason again, Helsley looks like one of the better closer options in the league as we approach spring training, and deserving of the UP: 40 Sv tag given to him in the 2023 Baseball Forecaster.
India looks to reset after injury-riddled sophomore season... Jonathan India (2B, CIN) exceeded expectations in his rookie year in 2021, but underperformed the raised expectations that came with his follow-up season. Can this be blamed on the injuries that plagued him in 2022?
Year PA BA xBA bb% ct% HctX GB/LD/FB PX/xPX HR/F Spd/SBA HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== ======== ======= ==== ======= ===== 2019# 145 .252 N/A 16 73 N/A N/A 74/N/A N/A 114/N/A 3/ 4 2020 -----------------Spent at alternate training site---------------------- 2021 631 .269 .260 11 74 102 44/23/33 118/ 97 16% 102/10% 21/12 2022 431 .249 .239 7 76 85 41/23/36 84/ 81 10% 125/ 7% 10/ 3 #Double-A MLEs
That seems like a reasonable explanation:
- Injury-wise, India's 2022 season went like this: on April 14, just 30 PA into the year, he strained his right hamstring and went on the IL. After returning to action on April 26, he only last four games before aggravating the hamstring and going back on the IL, this time for much longer, as he didn't make it back until June 14. The next 6-7 weeks were his healthiest stretch; he was hit by a pitch twice and bruised his thigh on a hard slide into home plate, but only logged one DNP during that time. Then he re-injured the hamstring on August 8, got hit in the lower left leg on August 11 (during the Field of Dreams game, where swelling in the leg led him to be airlifted by helicopter to the nearest hospital), and basically played at less than 100% for the remainder of the year.
- Going back to that healthiest stretch between mid-June and early August: if we assume that his poor showing in June (.167 BA, .546 OPS) was due to not having faced MLB pitching for six weeks, his July looks very interesting—he hit .290 with an .892 OPS, along with a .279 xBA, 160 PX, 118 xPX, and 18% HR/F. That looks very similar to the India we saw in the second half of 2021, when he hit .273 with an .878 OPS, along with a .297 xBA, 146 PX, 105 xPX, and 20% HR/F.
- The drop-of in his running game makes sense given how much time he spent dealing with leg injuries in 2022. After stealing with an 80% success rate in 2021, he was 3-for-7 (42.9%) on steals in 2022, and two of those successful steals came during that healthy stretch in June and July.
While there are many times when we'd like to simply disregard a disappointing season from a player, this appears to be one case where doing so is appropriate. The 26-year-old India was a $22 player in 2021, and looked a lot like that player when healthy in July of 2022. He's young enough to bounce back and put the leg issues behind him, though it is worth noting that he's been hit by a remarkable 37 pitches over the last two seasons (he led the NL with 23 in 2021), which does keep him at a slightly elevated risk for injury. If last year's lost season has him available at a discount in your league, take the opportunity to acquire a player who appears likely to rebound to double-digit value (and perhaps even to $20+) in 2023.
Did Taillon return to form?... Two years after missing most of 2019 and all of 2020 due to an elbow injury that eventually led to Tommy John surgery (the second of his career), Jameson Taillon (RHP, CHC) enjoyed a resurgent season in 2022, posting a 3.91 ERA and earning double-digit rotisserie value for the first time since 2018. Have his skills returned to pre-surgery levels?
Year IP ERA xERA BB% K% K-BB% xBB% SwK GB/LD/FB H%/S% HR/F xHR/F ==== === ==== ==== === === ===== ==== ===== ======== ===== ==== ===== 2018 191 3.20 3.66 6% 23% 17% 6% 11.0% 46/22/31 31/77 12% 11% 2019 37 4.10 4.17 5% 19% 14% 5% 12.1% 50/23/27 29/66 13% 16% 2020 ---------------Did not pitch, Tommy John surgery----------------------- 2021 144 4.30 4.60 7% 23% 16% 6% 12.9% 33/19/48 28/70 12% 11% 2022 177 3.91 3.90 4% 21% 16% 6% 10.6% 40/21/39 29/71 12% 12%
For the most part, yes:
- Since Taillon has never been a high-strikeout pitcher, there was no noticeable impact on that part of his game, though oddly enough, he did post the highest SwK of his career in 2021. His career rates now sit at a 22% K% and a 10.7% SwK, both very comparable to the skills he owned in 2022. He did experiment with adding a cutter to his repertoire in 2022, throwing it 10.8% of the time for an 11.9% SwK; the continued development of that pitch could bear watching.
- That first season back from surgery did see his walk rate go up, especially against left-handed batters, where it ballooned to a career-worst 11% rate, but he bounced back to tie the lowest walk rate of his career in 2022, which included a 7% rate against LHB. His stable xBB% suggests we'll see some regression in his BB% in 2023, but his control should remain nicely elite.
- His fly ball rate spiked to an uncharacteristically high level in 2021, but he managed to reverse that in 2022, though not quite to previous levels. Given that we would expect his BB% and K% to be pretty close to what he posted in 2018, if he could restore his GB% to a similar 45-50% mark in 2023, he could lower his xERA to around that 3.66 mark from that season. He might also benefit from his change in home parks, going from Yankee Stadium, which graded out as neutral in HR tendencies in 2022, to Wrigley Field, which came in at -19% for RHB HR, and -16% for LHB HR.
At 31, Taillon has pretty firmly established himself as a mid-rotation fantasy option in most leagues; he's unlikely to put anyone over the top, but he can provide solid value at the right price. His 2022 results offer encouragement that he has successfully returned to form after his second Tommy John surgery, which is not something every pitcher has been able to do. Our current BaseballHQ projection has him at a 3.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 21% K over 160 IP, earning $5 in R$, numbers he might be able to surpass if his skills fall into line again.
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