F/F SPOTLIGHT: Changepoint Edition—Judge, Zimmerman, Altherr, Dozier, McCutchen

Today's Facts & Flukes column takes a different approach from usual. We'll be taking a look at the historical skills profiles of five batters using changepoint analysis, which was introduced in a research column last year (follow the link for full introduction and details).

As a quick refresher, changepoint analysis looks for patterns in the mean and variability of both skills and playing time. This is a retrospective analysis of a player's entire career, with the goal of identifying clear points of change. Rather than using selective endpoints such as the last month or the last year, we can anchor our analysis of a player's skills to a time where their performance or playing time clearly changed. 

A guide to interpreting the...

Almost!

You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!

Already a subscriber? Sign in here

More From Facts & Flukes

What happened to George Kirby? We examine the skills and metrics for Kirby, George Springer, MacKenzie Gore, Spencer Torkelson, and Bailey Ober.
Feb 3 2026 3:06am
Is Acuña Jr. still worthy of a first round pick? Plus, Spencer Strider, Matt McLain, Graham Ashcraft, and Victor Scott II.
Feb 2 2026 3:02am
Jackson Merrill warmed up in September. Also: David Peterson, Seiya Suzuki, Abner Uribe, Otto Lopez.
Jan 28 2026 3:05am
Cole Ragans had a small sample and inflated ERA in 2025, but his skills were top notch. Plus Gavin Williams, Lawrence Butler, Luke Keaschall, and Bo Naylor.
Jan 27 2026 3:05am
A May quad injury cost Alex Bregman seven weeks and seemed to hamper his second half performance—could he be a rebound candidate in 2026? Plus, Drake Baldwin, Tyler Mahle, Mark Vientos, and Braxton Ashcraft.
Jan 21 2026 3:03am

Tools