The underlying concept of XRD is that year-to-year player performance does not inherently follow a smooth trend. Rather, surges are followed by declines, and declines by surges, even as overall growth may still occur. What this means for us is that we need to significantly downgrade players coming off of peak or career years, and carefully target those who are coming off of down years. In fact, we might want to build our entire draft strategy around that. So did it work?